In a recent interview, renowned international relations scholar John Mearsheimer shared his perspective on the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. As a political science professor at the University of Chicago, Mearsheimer conveyed his belief that Ukraine is on a path toward becoming a “dysfunctional remnants regime,” likely to lose substantial territory. He argued that it will be difficult for Ukraine to remain intact beyond 2025, predicting that the war might come to an end between late this year and early next year, eventually transforming into a “frozen conflict.”
Mearsheimer pointed out that if there were genuine efforts to resolve the crisis, the solution could be straightforward. He suggested that the key steps would include ensuring Ukraine does not join NATO and maintaining its neutral status. He feels that such measures could significantly accelerate the peace process. However, he lamented that the United States seems disinclined to promote Ukraine’s neutrality, favoring instead its NATO membership.
When asked about NATO’s potential involvement, Mearsheimer expressed skepticism about the likelihood of the alliance deploying ground or air forces to engage directly with Russian troops, noting that the U.S. is keen to avoid a significant power conflict with Russia.
Looking ahead, Mearsheimer forecasts that once the conflict transitions to a “frozen” phase, Ukraine and its Western allies will persistently seek to complicate matters for Russia, especially in regions occupied by Russian forces. Conversely, he believes Russia will aim to diminish Ukraine’s remaining government efficacy and create discord within Europe, specifically targeting divisions between NATO and EU member states.
Mearsheimer emphasized that even if the fighting seems to have subsided, entering a “frozen conflict” will not result in any real peace. He anticipates a continuous cycle of conflict in the future.
Additionally, he discussed a broader implication of the Russia-Ukraine war: the deepening alliance between Russia and China. Mearsheimer noted that both countries share common interests in countering U.S. influence globally, viewing the United States as a mutual adversary. He highlighted that this burgeoning relationship offers significant opportunities for China, as Russia is likely to rely on China for support, which aligns with Chinese strategic interests.
In the context of East Asian dynamics, Mearsheimer predicts that Russia will actively assist China in countering U.S. influence amid these conflicts. He stressed that Russia’s ambitions extend well beyond Ukraine, aiming for a global stance against the U.S. As long as the U.S. remains a rival to both China and Russia, their close cooperation is expected to continue.
