In a recent interview with Professor David Spiegelhalter, we delved into the intriguing topic of luck and the unexpected twists that shape our lives. Spiegelhalter began by recalling a tragic incident that took place on August 19, 1949, when a British European Airways DC-3 crashed in the Peak District, resulting in the loss of most passengers and crew. Surprisingly, a young boy named Stephen Evans and his parents survived the crash, though their younger child did not.
When I asked him about the nature of luck, Spiegelhalter shared his perspective on its different forms. “We often categorize luck into three types,” he explained. “First is ‘circumstantial luck,’ which is about being in the right place at the right time—or the wrong place at the wrong time, like Stephen’s family deciding to board that flight. Then there’s ‘resultant luck,’ where outcomes are dictated by factors outside of our control. For instance, Stephen experienced fortunate resultant luck by surviving the crash.”
However, Spiegelhalter identified what he believes to be the most significant type of luck: “constitutive luck.” This encompasses the circumstances that shape our existence—our birth era, our parents, our backgrounds, and genetic traits. He noted how Stephen’s father instinctively chose to sit at the back of the plane, a decision that ultimately saved their lives.
Spiegelhalter also pointed out a common tendency to overrate personal effort and skills when it comes to success. “People should really cultivate a greater sense of gratitude for their constitutive luck, which plays a major role in their lives,” he remarked thoughtfully. He reflected on his own experience, recognizing the privilege of the time and family he was born into, while also marveling at the sheer improbability of his existence.
As the discussion turned to historical luck, Spiegelhalter shared stories about his grandfather during World War I. “My grandfather had the unfortunate luck of being of age to enlist at the start of the war. He served as a gas officer, a position full of peril.” However, after sustaining injuries, he was deemed unfit for frontline service and spent the rest of the war behind the lines—a fortunate turn compared to the grim fates of his old battalion.
He emphasized, “If it weren’t for a series of fortunate events, including my mother’s dramatic escape from pirates in China and my father narrowly avoiding plane crashes, I wouldn’t be here to tell this story.” He also highlighted the cosmic odds that make our existence possible, from ancient asteroid impacts to the stable conditions on our planet today.
As our conversation drew to a close, Spiegelhalter encouraged embracing our existential and constitutive luck to cultivate humility regarding our self-importance. “Once we recognize how fragile life is, we’re left with the daunting yet hopeful challenge of making the most of the hand we’ve been dealt,” he concluded.
With his background as the emeritus professor of statistics at the University of Cambridge and author of “The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck,” Spiegelhalter’s insights serve as a powerful reminder of the delicate interplay between chance and fortune in our lives.
