In an exclusive interview, we explore a concerning trend highlighted by recent research on life expectancy in the United States. Jay Olshansky, a professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of Illinois at Chicago, points out that the remarkable increases in life expectancy observed throughout the 20th century have significantly stagnated over the past three decades. “If you’re counting on blowing out the candles on your 100th birthday cake as part of your retirement plan, it might be time to rethink that strategy,” he warned.
Olshansky’s research suggests that children born in regions known for their older populations face significant challenges in reaching their centenary. The study estimates that only about 15% of girls and 5% of boys born in these areas will celebrate their 100th birthday this century.
“It’s unwise to plan for retirement with the assumption that you’ll live to 100,” Olshansky advised. “Chances are, you might need to work at least a decade longer than you expect. It’s crucial to enjoy the later stages of life rather than simply saving for a future that might not come.”
The findings underscore that the 20th century heralded a longevity revolution, driven by advancements in public health and medicine. Historically, life expectancy rose modestly, by about a year every century or two. However, during the 20th century, average life expectancy increased dramatically, adding three years to life expectancy every decade. This surge led some experts to predict that most individuals born after 2000 would reach 100. Yet, Olshansky and his team challenged this notion in 1990, suggesting that humans were approaching a biological limit of around 85 years.
For the new study, Olshansky meticulously analyzed death data from the U.S. and nine global regions with the highest life expectancies, spanning from 1990 to 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings revealed a significant slowdown in life expectancy increases, with U.S. life expectancy even declining.
The research team, in a paper published in *Nature Aging*, detailed that life expectancy in the longest-living areas only grew by an average of 6.5 years from 1990 to 2019. The probability of girls born in these regions reaching 100 is estimated at just 5.3%, while boys face even lower odds at 1.8%.
“In the modern era, we owe decades of life to advancements in public health and medicine,” Olshansky stated. “However, we need to recognize that these gains are decelerating. The landscape of longevity today is vastly different from a century ago, when we made major strides by improving infant and maternal health. Now, the increments are smaller because we are focusing on extending life in older age groups.”
To foster a new era of longevity, Olshansky believes groundbreaking treatments that target the aging process—considered a significant risk factor for a myriad of diseases—are crucial. Research is actively underway, with several drugs showing potential in extending the lifespan of mice.
Looking ahead, Steven Austad, a professor of healthy aging at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, reminisced about a bet he made with Olshansky back in 2000. He wagered that the first person to live to 150 is likely already among us, with substantial financial implications riding on the outcome.
“For life expectancy to accelerate again, we need to shift our focus towards disease prevention,” Austad stressed. “Geroscience aims to improve health by addressing the biological processes that drive aging, which lie at the core of many illnesses impacting our quality of life.”
He expressed optimism, asserting, “These advancements are starting to reach clinical applications. While I concur with the authors regarding the observed slowdown in life expectancy, I believe their projections of a continued gradual decline throughout the rest of the century may be premature.”
Meanwhile, the latest statistics from the Office for National Statistics reveal that life expectancy at birth in the UK from 2020 to 2022 has returned to levels last seen a decade ago: 82.6 years for females and 78.6 years for males, with male life expectancy dipping below previous benchmarks.
