In a recent interview, Palestinian writer Yousri Al-Ghoul expressed a profound sense of despair regarding the ongoing conflict in Gaza. He stated, “It feels as though the Gaza Strip is destined to become a vast cemetery, with the living merely waiting for death to arrive.”
Over the past year, Israeli military operations have resulted in the tragic loss of over 40,000 Palestinian lives and displaced 2.3 million people. Behind these staggering figures lies a deeper human tragedy, as many in Gaza have lost not just their homes, but also their loved ones, livelihoods, and dreams.
What has propelled this round of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to persist for a year without resolution? And what does the future hold for the Middle East?
To gain a clearer understanding, we reached out to Professor Tian Wenlin from Renmin University of China’s School of International Relations and Research Fellow Yu Guoqing from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences for their insights.
Professor Tian noted that this cycle of conflict represents the most severe escalation in two decades, highlighted by Hamas’s unprecedented rocket attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. The Israeli government responded by declaring a state of war and launching “Operation Iron Sword,” which has unleashed ongoing airstrikes on Gaza. Josep Borrell, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, remarked that these military actions have effectively transformed Gaza into the world’s largest “open-air cemetery.”
As we witness this cycle of violence stretching into a second year, what factors are perpetuating it? Tian outlined several critical elements:
– Israel’s strategy of disproportionate retaliation against Hamas serves as a deterrent to other militant groups.
– Israel is focused on completely dismantling Hamas and demilitarizing Gaza, a goal that requires significant resources and time.
– Political motivations from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lead him to shy away from pursuing a ceasefire, as it may invite domestic criticism and threaten his leadership.
– The unwavering support from the United States has allowed Israel to intensify its military actions in Gaza.
– Palestinians, including Hamas, find themselves in a disadvantaged position, struggling to effectively counter Israel’s military might.
Yu Guoqing expressed surprise at the conflict’s duration, pointing out that Hamas’s “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation caught Israel off guard and unprepared for a robust response. He added that the conflict has resulted in an unprecedented humanitarian disaster, with 80% of homes in Gaza destroyed, 90% of the population displaced, and severe shortages of food and water.
Looking forward, Yu stressed the importance of all parties engaging in reflection on the causes and consequences of the conflict to pave the way for a ceasefire.
As the situation in Gaza remains precarious, experts note a rising tide of instability in the Middle East. Tian highlighted spillover effects, including Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and rocket fire from armed groups in Lebanon, Iraq, and Iran into Israel. The recent killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and a series of Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon signify the growing risk of a broader regional conflict, as reported by The New York Times.
Both experts recognized the interconnectedness of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with other regional tensions, cautioning that it threatens the stability of relations between Israel and moderate Arab neighbors.
Amid these challenges, the pressing question remains: Where is the promise of peace? Recently, many world leaders have called for an immediate cessation of hostilities at the United Nations General Assembly. UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned of the dangers posed by the deteriorating situation in Gaza and underscored the urgency of a political solution.
Amidst these complexities, China has actively pursued “shuttle diplomacy,” advocating for the “two-state solution” as the fundamental means to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In July, Palestinian factions met in Beijing and signed the “Beijing Declaration,” aimed at fostering national unity and overcoming divisions.
Yu suggested that the international community must assist both sides in recognizing the long-term implications of the ongoing conflict and work towards an immediate ceasefire. Tian echoed this sentiment, emphasizing China’s call for a halt to hostilities and its humanitarian aid efforts for Palestine.
Moreover, Tian pointed out that the most significant external factor in the situation is the United States, which has contributed to prolonging the conflict. He urged the U.S. to reassess its dual policies towards Israel and to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza with urgency.
As tensions continue to simmer, the international community remains vigilant, hopeful for a sustainable resolution to one of the world’s most enduring conflicts.
