According to reports from Israeli media, Israel’s recent strikes against Iran have concluded. What prompted Israel to launch the attack in the early hours of October 26? Could this escalation impact the scale of the ongoing conflict? What are the calculations behind the Israeli government’s actions?
Since the renewed clashes between Israel and Palestine erupted in October 2023, Israeli authorities have consistently accused Iran of orchestrating attacks against them, claiming that Iran is the primary supporter of groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. This cycle of retaliatory actions has resembled a “turn-based game,” where each side exchanges missile strikes and drone attacks, responding to each other with increasing vigor.
For instance, the last significant exchange occurred on October 1, when Iran targeted Israel with nearly 200 missiles in retaliation for the assassination of top Iranian military officials. Despite this back-and-forth, both sides have carefully managed the scale of their attacks, avoiding crossing the threshold into full-scale war. This selective engagement suggests a mutual apprehension—each side is acutely aware of the risks of escalating the conflict further.
The extent of Israel’s recent strikes against Tehran appears relatively measured, with reports indicating that normal city operations continued and military installations remained unaffected. It seems that, to some extent, Israel adhered to the rules of this metaphorical game by not significantly escalating its actions. Analysts predict that even if Iran decides to retaliate, it is unlikely to exceed previously established limits.
Yet, what happens if Israel extends its strikes to other Iranian cities or even targets vital infrastructures like oil or nuclear facilities? Such actions could undoubtedly escalate this “turn-based game” into a more dangerous conflict.
Furthermore, despite requests from the Biden administration urging Israel to avoid targeting Iranian oil and nuclear sites, the U.S. has been seen as providing military support to Israel. Following Iran’s retaliation on October 1, the U.S. transferred military equipment, including the THAAD system, and stationed military troops in Israel. This juxtaposition creates a contradiction where the U.S. calls for restraint while simultaneously bolstering Israel’s military capabilities.
Some experts speculate that this military support from the U.S. significantly enabled Israel’s recent operations against Iran, implying that the attacks may not have occurred without American backing. When Secretary of State Antony Blinken concluded a brief Middle East trip and shifted focus to London, some observers considered that the U.S. might have been aware of Israel’s impending strikes, prompting the quick change in plans.
So, what is Israel’s ultimate aim? First and foremost, it appears to be maintaining the momentum of the conflict. The current Israeli government seems less interested in a ceasefire and more inclined to continue expanding military operations, not just against Gaza but also against Lebanon and Iran. This aggressive posture has been interpreted by some as a desperate attempt to retain power amid ongoing judicial reforms and corruption investigations entangling senior officials.
Additionally, the timing of these strikes may also be intended to influence the upcoming U.S. elections. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been a longtime ally of former President Trump, who notably moved the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem during his term, igniting considerable controversy. The recent violence has caused rifts within the Democratic Party, as progressive members criticize the civilian casualties in Gaza, while establishment Democrats continue to support Israel, leading to a divided voter base.
There’s a rising wave of disillusionment among younger voters within the Democratic Party, especially those advocating for Palestinian rights. If they pivot away from the party, the implications could be severe, particularly in swing states like Michigan, where Arab American voters may seek alternatives, undermining the Democratic electoral base.
As the U.S. election approaches, it seems reasonable to speculate that the Israeli government may hope to leverage its actions against Iran to further damage the Democratic Party’s credibility on foreign policy, potentially providing a boost to Trump and the Republican candidates.
